右翼份子
2日
Stan Druckenmiller: "I've always believed markets are smarter than I am."
Here is how he uses that.
"They send out a message. And if I listen to them properly, no matter how powerful my thesis, if they're screaming something else, it's telling me you've got to reevaluate."
His first mentor had a saying for it.
"100 million Frenchmen can't be wrong."
Then he gives the example, and it is not a flattering one.
Facebook had reported great earnings. The stock was $122, opened at $131 after hours, and three days later it was trading at $116.
"So the analysts come in, and they're giving me this. I said, nothing's wrong. It's great. I said, no, kid, you're wrong. Something's going to come out. You just don't know it yet."
Then he tells you how that turned out.
"Anyway, a year later, the stock was like $220. So that didn't mean anything."
Read that again. The rule he lives by misfired, and he told the story anyway. That is why I trust it. He is telling you where it breaks: over a week or two, price gives you noise. Over months, it gives you signal.
The same idea in a bigger trade: on the night Trump was elected, he says, bonds got murdered and stocks opened down, and the market was predicting a recovery while the talking heads said it was the end of the world.
"The market was right."
And on the asymmetry that made his best trades great, on the 1992 pound bet.
"It was a one way bet. It was either going to be flat or we're going to make 15 or 20 percent."
Compare that to the Brexit trade he passed on: make 10% or lose 10%, and he could not figure out which one.
So do this. For every position, write two lines. One: the thesis. Two: the price move that would make you reevaluate before you add. Check it weekly, not daily. And look for bets where the downside is flat and the upside is 15 to 20 percent, before you look for bets you are sure about.
The whole segment is 9 minutes. Watch it below.
Every day I take one story like this and turn it into a rule you can use the same day. Follow so tomorrow's finds you.
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up緊，就快得
